« Obama and Libraries | Main | Gartner's Top 10 Strategic Technologies »
January 6, 2009
2009 Trends . . .
"Imran Khan’s 2009 Tech Predictions (J.P. Morgan)
Potential search deal likely between Yahoo! and Microsoft
Net Neutrality should become an important mainstream issue
Challenges in monetizing video advertising should persist
Mobile usage should continue its strong growth momentum, but mobile
advertising will likely be challenging this year
Possible bankruptcies in brick-and-mortar retail should create opportunities
for eCommerce companies
M&A consolidation activities could potentially resume during 2H’09 (IPO market is dead until 2010)
Doug Anmuth’s 2009 Tech Predictions (Barclays Capital)
Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic decisions
Performance-based advertising will be more important than ever
Increased Competition For Search Distribution Via Toolbars, OEM Deals, and Partnerships
Proliferation of Smart Phones Will Drive The Mobile Internet
Small Strategic Acquisitions Will Re-Emerge
Ad Networks To Consolidate"
John Battelle has his top annual predictions here (highights only below):
1. Macro economy: We'll see an end to the recession, taken literally, by Q4 09.
2. The online media space will be hit hard by the economic downturn in the first half, but by year's end, will have chalked up moderate gains over last year in terms of gross spend.
3. Google will see search share decline significantly for the first time ever. It will also struggle to find an answer to the question of how it diversifies its revenue in 2009.
4. Despite #3 above, Google stock will soar in by Q3-4 of 2009, mainly because demand will pick up
5. Tied to #3 above, Microsoft will gain at least five points of search share in 2009, perhaps as much as 10.
6. Yahoo and AOL will merge.
7. In the second half of the year, Microsoft will buy Yahoo's search monetization from the combined company.
8. Apple will see a significant reversal of recent fortunes.... a brand based on being cooler than the other guy simply does not scale past a certain point.
9. Major brands will continue to struggle with the best way to interact with "social media."
10. Agencies will increasingly see their role as that of publishers. Publishers will increasingly see their role as that of agencies. Both can win at this, but only by understanding how to truly add value to real communities
11. Twitter will continue its meteoric rise.
12. Facebook will do something entirely shocking and unpredictable.
13. 2009 will see the year mobility becomes presumptive in every aspect of the web.
Discuss. Note the importance of the money folks focus on ads and ad supported goals. Imagine if libraries set ads as a priority and know what makes libraries differentiated from commercial web properties.
Stephen
Posted by stephen at January 6, 2009 9:51 AM