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October 7, 2008
The Next Big Thing
Here's an interesting perspective on our current troubles:
The Seeds of the Next Big Thing Are Being Planted Now
I can attest to some of this having been through a few economic disruptions in the past few decades. In one the personal computer emerged. In another we saw the Internet and then the web. In another companies like Google emerged.
Hmmmm. What's emerging now? Will the rumours play out and AOL/Yahoo will merge and then be acquired by Microsoft? Is the introduction of MS Live Search into Facebook a weak signal from the future? Is there a company that we've never heard of like GOOG in 1998 or Microsoft in 1980 that will be a game changer? Is the GS Android phone or iPhone indicators of a major shift in devices? Is the Goog's proposal to use the whitespace left over on the almost defunct air-based analog TV signal band in 2009 a big deal? Can they own a free, commercial, ubiquitous, broadband network? Is the predominance of copyright owners in the political donation game in the US and Canada indicative of a new legislative agenda overpowering the traditional oil and pharma donors? Are we heading for a big bubble burst, merger spree or concatenation for the web 2.0 companies as their loans, equity and venture capital angels 'suffer'? Will they be picked up by the traditionals or can those folks afford much anymore? Do start-up and entrepreneurial cultures have the individual stomach for difficult times and hard management decisions and priority choces? Are we heading for another major leap in web-centic contextual content - all TV shows? All radio? All books? All socially personal info? All behavioural data? Will certain formats really shrink? How about local newspapers? Local radio and TV? If ad dollars are heading online whither other ad supported enterprises? When the ad bubble shrinks a lot after the end of these elections, who survives? Or wll change start to slow down...?
How about libraries? Those academic libraries that are supported by trust funds... how are their investments, interest revenue and dividends doing? How will the market losses be absorbed and apportioned to spread the pain? How about those libraries supported by property taxes in an environment where many homes are in or eligible for foreclosure? Taxes owed are a very different thing from taxes paid in municipal cash flow situations. How about those public sector or special libraries that receive state or federal dollars? Will these funds continue in an era of major increases in the national debt? How safe and sustainable are library budgets and business models? Is there a next big thing in organizing libraries and cooperating on a bigger scale for technology, consortial buying, management organizational structure, etc.?
Hmmmm. Where's the next big thing? Are we ready for the next big shift?
Stephen
Posted by stephen at October 7, 2008 7:56 PM
Comments
I think it is interesting to note what technology has come out of economic downturns. A factor may be the rise in people enrolling in graduate programs during economic downturns. I don't know if that will happen this time, but I have noticed it in the past.
If I were a betting person, I would takes bets on mobile. The computer is great and mobile phones/devices are great, but they have to have more common ground. They are still too far away from each other in functionality, features, etc. Maybe, simply because of screen size, they will never find common ground, but that is a discussion for another day!
Posted by: JayeL at October 8, 2008 7:52 PM