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January 4, 2007
World Future Society Forecast
You can get a free World Future Society Forecast here. It's quite interesting and forecasts out 25 years.
Here are ten of them:
Forecast #1: Hydrogen fuel cells will be cost competitive by 2010. The cost of power via fuel cell is dropping rapidly—from $600,000 per kilowatt-hour in the 1970s to $1,200 today. By 2012, fuel cell power is expected to cost around $400 per kilowatt-hour. It would then be competitive with every type of power. Fuel cells will power cars and allow each home to have its own non-polluting electricity generator.
Forecast #2: The era of the Cyborg is at hand. Researchers in Israel have fashioned a "bio-computer" using the DNA of living cells instead of silicon chips. This development may soon allow a computer to connect directly with a human brain.
Forecast #3: By 2015, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt may emerge as hubs for high-speed, large-capacity supersonic planes. NASA's X-43A Scramjet recently flew at 7,000 mph (nearly ten times the speed of sound). These hyperspeed planes will whisk passengers across continents in the time it takes most people to drive to the airport.
Forecast #4: Schools based on classrooms and a human teacher will dwindle over the next 25 years. Why sit in a classroom when you can visit virtual worlds and experience your subjects? An "avatar," a personalized interactive guide, will answer all of your questions and help you pose new ones.
Forecast #5: Speculation in hydrogen energy stocks could create an investment bubble, as happened with the Internet. When investors see the huge potential of hydrogen energy, the stocks of companies with promising technologies may skyrocket to unsustainable levels.
Forecast #6: Ocean Currents May Surpass Wind as an Energy Source. Turbines driven by ocean currents could generate four times more electricity than windmills. At one site alone—in the Channel Islands off the coast of France—the potential electricity could match that produced by three nuclear power plants.
Forecast #7: A snail may save your life. A non-addictive painkiller one thousand times more potent than morphine could soon be on the market, thanks to research on conotoxins, the distinct set of chemicals found in tropical cone snails. Future medicines from the snails may help treat heart disease, depression and spinal cord injuries, among other ailments.
Forecast #8: Weapons of mass destruction will be even easier to obtain over the next 15 years. Terrorists may move from bombs to creating havoc on the cellular level. The weapons of the future—genetic engineering and nanotechnology—require neither large facilities nor mass materials.
Forecast #9: The convergence of genetic engineering, nanotechnology and robotics will allow humans to change their bodies in profoundly new ways. In the next 15 years, people may be able to rearrange their genes to change their physical features, extend their lifespan, merge their brains with computers and their bodies with robots, among many other remarkable developments.
Forecast #10: Robots and smart environments will improve care and independence for the elderly. Intelligent walkers will help seniors get around while sensors on the handlebars monitor their vital signs. Handheld devices will track senior citizens' movements and guide them around town, keeping people mobile and independent.
It's an interesting report and the timeline puts some things in perspective. All grist for the mill ...
Stephen
Posted by stephen at January 4, 2007 12:29 AM
Comments
One problem with forecast #1, it still takes more energy to produce hydrogen than you can get out of its use as a fuel in a fuel cell. There is a net loss because it takes electricity to produce hydrogen from water or as now most is made from natural gas. Hydrogen is not an energy source, it is an energy transfer mechanism.
Posted by: Bill Drew at January 4, 2007 8:22 AM
Prediction #4 is particularly interesting - "Schools based on classrooms and a human teacher will dwindle over the next 25 years." And, so, I guess this means that the school library will become virtual as well?? Will we also be able to go to our virtual public library and check out a book? I guess if everyone has a computer to go into these virtual worlds then public libraries may go back to housing books rather than computers? (See: "Hello, Grisham -- So Long, Hemingway?" in the New York Times, 1/2/07).
Posted by: Rob Darrow at January 4, 2007 10:03 AM
You quoted #1 correctly, but: "By 2012, fuel cell power is expected to cost around $400 per kilowatt-hour. It would then be competitive with every type of power." is seriously off--the original is missing something.
A kilowatt-hour of electricity goes for around a dime--let's call it "less than $0.20 Canadian." Even $400 per megawatt-hour wouldn't be competitive with current electricity sources in most areas ($0.20x1000=$200).
It's also not at all demonstrated that mass use of fuel cells would be "non-polluting." The cells themselves might be, but what about the processes used to generate, store, and distribute the hydrogen?
I could poke at some of the others as well (some of them are "you CAN change just one thing" forecasts, e.g., we don't know the potential effects of harnessing ocean currents or the potential loss of socialization if most kids don't attend real classrooms), but never mind...the innumeracy of the first forecast, or lack of explanatory detail, is good enough for me.
Posted by: walt crawford at January 4, 2007 10:25 AM
read my e-book, written in 1991 and available on web site www.germwar1.com.
Posted by: Don Parks at January 4, 2007 6:41 PM
I couldn't find a feedback option on the World Future Society site, so I'll bless you with my comment: Once again, the cyberpros have completely ignored the importance of human contact & interaction in their Forecast #4 regarding education in the classroom. Just as books will never disappear as tactile, sensual enjoyments, neither will the classroom ever disappear because of our HUMANITY. Regardless of the deluge of online degrees now, online education will never completely replace the classroom. That's my story 'n I'm sticking to it! ;-D
Posted by: Margley at January 5, 2007 1:29 PM
The WFS forecast makes for a fun discussion launcher. I am certainly no expert on hydrogen. I do know that inventions often transcend imagination. I recall the "experts" telling us what the absolute storage limits of a computer chip was and the limits on bandwidth were. All have been superceded. On the education forecast I'll just note that 'dwindle' does not mean disappear. Then again, there might be limits. Who knows?
SA
Posted by: Stephen at January 7, 2007 8:09 PM
Awesome forecasts!
I posted it on my blogs and send it as a comment to all my Environmental Associates.
Feel free to become my friend here too:
www.myspace.com/windydayeveryday
and here about Space Certified Technologies Forecasts.
Pushing barriers foward, following the Worlds Trends, for the love of our planet we all share!
Always Expect the impossible....
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Posted by: Kent G Anderson at June 10, 2007 9:14 PM